Working Papers

The Center and the Periphery: Two Hundred Years of International Borrowing Cycles

NBER WP No. 23975, Revised January 2019

Two Hundred Years of International Borrowing Cycles: A New Historical Database

NBER WP No. 22819, November 2016

Boom-Bust Capital Flow Cycles

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Jonathan Hamilton, Avinash Dixit, Sebastian Edwards and Kenneth Judd (eds), Oxford University Press, forthcoming. 

Publications

Globalization in the Periphery and Monetary Policy: What is Gained, What is Lost

in Central Banking in Times of Change, published by the Bank of International Settlements and the Central Bank of Austria, Vienna, Austria, December 2016, 70-81.

Systemic and Idiosyncratic Sovereign Debt Crises (with Pablo Vega-García)

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 14, Issue 1, February 2016, 80-114.

Terms of Trade Shocks and Fiscal Cycles

in Renée Fry, Callum Jones, and Christopher Kent (eds.) Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis at the Australian National University, 2010, 231-250.

Thirty Years of Currency Crises in Argentina: External Shocks or Domestic Fragility? (with Amine Mati and Nada Choueiri)

Economia, Volume 10, Number 1, Fall 2009, 81-124.

Latin America’s Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity? (with Ana Fostel)

in Kevin Cowan, Sebastian Edwards, Rodrigo Valdés, Norman Loayza, and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (eds) Current Account and External Financing, Chapter 4, 117-158, Central Bank of Chile, 2008.

Financial Globalization and Exchange Rate Arrangements

in Klaus Liebscher, Josef Christl, Peter Mooslechner, and Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (eds.) Currency and Competitiveness in Europe, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, 2008, 46-55.             

Crises and Sudden Stops: Evidence from International Bond and Syndicated-Loan Markets

Monetary and Economic Studies, Volume 26, December 2008, 107-129.

Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: Financial Liberalization and Stock Market Cycles? (with Sergio Schmukler)

Review of Finance, Volume 12, December 2008, (lead article) 253-292.

The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil (with Carmen Reinhart)

in Carmen M. Reinhart, Carlos A. Végh and Andres Velasco (eds.), Money, Crises, and Transition: Essays in Honor of Guillermo Calvo, The MIT Press, 2008, 171-216.       

 

International Capital Flows to Emerging Countries: Short- and Long-Run Effects

in Amitava Krishna Dutt and Jaime Ros (eds) International Handbook of Development Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, 2008, Volume Two, 71-97.

Volatility in International Financial Market Issuance: The Role of the Financial Center (with Marco Cipriani)

Open Economics Review, Volume 18, Number 2, April 2007, 157-176.

Currency Crises

in Lawrence Blume and Steven Durlauf (eds), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan Ltd., 2007.

Currency Crises: Are They All the Same?

Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 25, 2006, 503-527.

International Capital Flows, Financial Stability, and Growth

in José Antonio Ocampo, Jomo K. S. and Sarbuland Khan (eds.), Policy Matters: Economic And Social Policies To Sustain Equitable Development, United Nations, New York, Zed Books, London, Opus, New Delhi, 2006, 123-167.

Volatile International Capital Flows: A Blessing or a Curse?

Revue d'Economie du Développement, Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International (CERDI), Paris, France: Presses Univ. de France, No. 34, December 2004, 83-119.  

When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies (with Carmen Reinhart and Carlos Végh)

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Mark Gertler and Kenneth S. Rogoff (eds.), (lead article), 11-53.

Managers, Investors, and Crises: Investment Strategies of Mutual Funds (with Richard Lyons and Sergio Schmukler)

Journal of International Economics, Volume 64, Issue 1, October 2004, 113-134.

Inflation Regimes and Stabilization Policies, Spain 1962-2001 (with Juan Ayuso and David Lopez-Salido)

Investigaciones Económicas, Banco de España, Volume 27, Issue 3, 2003, 615-631.  

The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion (with Carmen Reinhart and Carlos Végh)

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 17, Issue 4, Fall 2003, 51-74.

Financial Markets in Times of Stress (with Carmen Reinhart)

Journal of Development Economics, Volume 69, Issue 2, December 2002, 451-470.

Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns? (with Sergio Schmukler)

World Bank Economic Review, Volume 16, Issue 2, September 2002, 171-195.   

Mutual Fund Investment in Emerging Markets: An Overview (with Richard Lyons and Sergio Schmukler)

World Bank Economic Review, Volume 15, Issue 2, May 2001, 315-340. 

Short- and Long-Run Integration: Do Capital Controls Matter? (with Sergio Schmukler)

Brookings Trade Forum, 2000, 125-166. 

On Crises, Contagion, and Confusion (with Carmen Reinhart)

Journal of International Economics, Volume 51, Issue 1, June 2000, 145-168.   

 

Notas Sobre Crisis Financieras

Revista de Desarrollo y Sociedad, Volume 44, published by Centro de Estudios sobre Desarrollo Económico, Bogotá, Colombia, September 1999, 47-60.

What Triggers Market Jitters? A Chronicle of the Asian Crisis (with Sergio Schmukler)

Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 18, Issue 4, August 1999, 537-560.

The Twin Crises: Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems (with Carmen Reinhart)

American Economic Review, Volume 89, Issue 3, June 1999, 473-500.

Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now (with Carmen Reinhart)

American Economic Review, Volume 88, Issue 2, May 1998, 444-449.

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises (with Saul Lizondo and Carmen Reinhart)

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 45, Issue 1, March 1998, 1-48.

High Real Interest Rates in the Aftermath of Stabilization: Is it a Lack of Credibility (with Leonardo Leiderman)

Journal of Development Economics, Volume 55, Issue 1, February 1998, 191-214.

The Debt Crisis: Lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s (with Alfredo Pereira)

Journal of Development Economics, Volume 50, Issue 1, June 1996, 1-24.

Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy? (with Karen Lewis)

Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 37, Issue 2, April 1996, 285-312.

Is There a Peso Problem?  Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987

American Economic Review, Volume 83, Issue 3, June 1993, 450-472.